Increasingly violent and more frequent storms, floods, drought and fires are in the daily news. These weather extremes are becoming the new normal and are attributed to global warming by the majority of scientists and governments throughout the world. In spite of global opinion there are still people who do not believe in global warming. Personally, I have witnessed the local climate getting warmer weather patterns changing in my lifetime.
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| Photo taken towards Cameron on December 20th, 2016. |
AIR POLLUTION: Strawberry Crater looking north. The first line of cliffs are 30 miles away. Navajo Mountain on the Arizona/Utah border is 115 miles away and barely visible. Today there is a permanent haze in the atmosphere caused by vehicles, high altitude jets, industry and dust. Visibility is now considered to be 10 miles when a century ago it used to be 100. The only time the sky is clear is for about 24 hours following a significant rain or snow storm which is the best time for landscape photography.
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are rare in Northern Arizona but they do occur usually in the flat grasslands east of Flagstaff. There are exceptions.
On October 24th, 1992 one tornado touched down at Sunset Crater and knocked over a few Ponderosa Pine trees and damaged others.
On October 10th, 2010 six tornadoes were spotted west of Flagstaff at Bellemont. At least three of them touched down and left swaths of destruction for up to 34 miles through the Coconino National Forest. One EF3 tornado passed through Bellemont which derailed a train, destroyed the entire RV inventory of the Camping World dealership and damaged 30 homes. That day 22 tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service for locations surrounding Flagstaff.
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| Tens of thousands of trees were destroyed. |
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| Twisted Ponderosa Pine tree. |
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| 30 homes sustained significant damage. |
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| 28 box cars derailed and damaged. |
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| Camping World RV Dealership |
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| Utility poles snapped off. |
DROUGHT: Northern Arizona has been in continual drought since 2002. In some years significant amounts of rain or snow fell but overall precipitation was still below average. The worst years were:
2002-2004, 2006-2007, 2010, 2012-2015 and 2018.
BARK BEETLE: The Bark Beetle outbreak that started in 2002 still continues today. According to the United States Department of Agriculture between 2 and 3 percent of the trees in Coconino National Forest have perished with up to 90 percent at localized sites.
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| Bark Beetle Ponderosa Pine tree kill. |
The only thing that can stop the bark beetle attack is rain and snow. If the trees contain enough moisture pitch will drive the beetles out of their borrows underneath the bark. This would require repeated years of above average precipitation which there is little hope for.
FIRE: Fire is the most frequent hazard to occur in Coconino National Forest. Since 1977 six mayor fires and dozens of smaller ones burned areas of the forest. Drought doesn't light fires but make them easier to start and to keep burning.
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| 1977 Radio Fire - Mt. Elden - 4,600 acres |
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| 1996 Hochderffer Hills Fire - NW of San Francisco Peaks - 16,680 acres |
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| 2000 Pumpkin Fire - Kendrick Peak - 14,760 acres |
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| 2006 Brins Mesa Fire - Wilson Mt to Slide Rock - 4,317 acres |
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| 2010 Schultz Fire - East side San Francisco Mountain - 15,075 acres |
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| 2014 Slide Fire - in Oak Creek Canyon - 21,000 acres |
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| Slide Fire |
The Slide Fire had progressed into Sterling Canyon just seven miles from our house and headed directly for us. We were told to prepare to evacuate. Two days later the fire was stopped at a fire-break six miles away.
There was a 19 year separation between the 1977 Radio and 1996 Hochderffer fires suggesting conditions were wetter during the 70's and 80's. I was actively hiking and backpacking in those decades and I don't recall any mention of drought during those years.
1996 Hochderffer Hills Fire - NW of San Francisco Peaks................16680 acres
2000 Pumpkin Fire - Kendrick Peak..................................................14760 acres
2006 Brins Mesa Fire - Wilson Mt and lower Oak Creek Canyon......4317 acres
2010 Schultz Fire - San Francisco Mountain.....................................15075 acres
2014 Slide fire - Upper Oak Creek Canyon and West Fork...............21000 acres
TOTAL......76,432 acres
(120 sq. miles)
FLOODS: There is one advantage to being in a drought; it means there is less chance of a flood. Oak Creek has flooded many times almost always due to rain falling on a snow pack in the mountains. Since 1993 the annual floods have generally gotten smaller and less frequent. The largest flood in recorded history was in 1993 which reached a flow of 23,000 cubic feet per second (cfs). There have been dozens of high water events over the decades but the five largest Oak Creek floods since 1982 were:
March, 1995 17,000 cfs
February, 2005 19,000 cfs
February, 2008 10,000 cfs
February, 2019 13,000 cfs
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| Slide Rock, most likely 1993. |
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| Rainbow Trout Farm below Indian Gardens, 2019 |
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| Lower Oak Creek, 2019 |
RAIN: For as long as I can remember May and June where the two driest months of the year. Then in 2017 significant precipitation fell during those months. It wasn't heavy rains, just numerous small storms. It had the odd effect of triggering all the Sycamore trees along Oak Creek to whither and drop their leaves like it was fall. Over the rest of the summer the leaves then grew back again.
I contacted the Coconino National Forest botanist and he was unaware of it. I later learned it was from a fungus that had formed on the leaves because of the timing of the rains. This year we've had more than an inch of rain in May and the Sycamore trees are dropping their leaves, not as fast as in 2017 but it's happening again.
SNOW: In the 1980's when my children were young we took them out on Halloween for trick-or-treating. Every year we would bundle them up because invariably there were a few inches of snow on the ground that had fallen in the last half of October. That is not the case today. The first measurable snowfall now falls in November if even then.
Also in the 1970's and 80's I was a cross-country and downhill skier. The snow is not as reliable for these sports today. The ten year snowfall average in Flagstaff in 1980 was 110" per season. By the year 2000 it had fallen to 90" and by the end of this decade it will be closer to 80". (1980 and 2000 averages ascertained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.)
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| In January 60" of snow fell on our house in two days. |
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| One of the exceptional storms. |
We occasional have very heavy storms but they are the exception and the average precipitation is getting less. So is global warming real? I definitely believe it is.
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